Trump's Iran war strategy and exit plan? Win.

By Gary Abernathy

Supporters are not breaking up with Trump over Iran, despite whiny voices the media thinks represent MAGA

Going back to President Trump’s first term, the far left (formerly mainstream) media likes to produce stories about every six months or so questioning whether Trump’s MAGA base is finally breaking from him. The ultimate answer is always “no,” but the Trump-hating media remains endlessly optimistic that someday they’ll be right.

The latest media fever dream is that Trump’s adventure in Iran is finally doing the trick. As is often the case, media outlets incorrectly identify a number of prominent voices as representing MAGA World, when, in fact, they do not — even if the characters in question like to think that they do.

MAGA World is, in fact, probably the most grassroots-driven political movement of modern history. It has always existed but only emerged in full force when Trump came along to fully embody the environment that MAGA needed to thrive.

The latest round of the media’s (and Never Trumpers’) semi-annual game of “Is This the Wedge that Finally Separates Trump From His Supporters?” is summarized in a recent Associated Press story headlined, “Cracks Appear in Trump’s MAGA Base As Leading Figures Criticize The Iran War.” Of course, the media’s idea of “leading figures” in MAGA is defined by certain supporters turning on Trump and criticizing his actions.

In this case, the lead characters are Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh and Marjorie Taylor Greene. A Washington Post story suggesting a similar break from Trump tossed in Steve Bannon for good measure.

The Washington Post chimed in with its own version of the same story, quoting dissent from the conservative media ranks.

“This is Israel’s war. This is not the United States’ war,” Carlson said.

“No one should have to die for a foreign country,” Kelly chimed in.

According to the Post, “Daily Wire podcaster Matt Walsh beseeched fellow conservatives on Monday to stop supporting Trump’s military campaign. ‘I can’t take the gaslighting, guys. I really can’t,’ he wrote on X.”

Carlson has always been a strange individual. His main persona seems to be that of a contrarian, but his habit of breaking into a sudden burst of a clearly forced sustained hysterical cackle makes him appear unhinged.

When it comes to Carlson, it would be a mistake to forget that in the waning days of Trump’s first term, following his defeat and just a couple of days before the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, Carlson, while still with Fox News, texted the following to an unidentified person, per an NBC News report.

“We are very, very close to being able to ignore Trump most nights. I truly can’t wait. … I hate him passionately. ... I can’t handle much more of this,” Carlson texted. In another text, he wrote, “We’re all pretending we’ve got a lot to show for it, because admitting what a disaster it’s been is too tough to digest. … But come on. There isn’t really an upside to Trump.”

According to a Business Insider report in 2023 (based on New York Times reporting), “Trump felt hurt by the revelations in the text messages and called Carlson to hash things out, The Times reported, citing two people close to the former president. The pair have since been talking and texting each other regularly, and their relationship appears closer ‘than at any time before,’ the outlet wrote.” Right.

Just last year, Carlson harshly criticized the Trump administration over the U.S. participating with Israel in striking Iran. But, according to Trump later, “Tucker is a nice guy. He called and apologized the other day because he thought he said things that were a little bit too strong, and I appreciated that.”

Whether it’s Carlson or any other figure said to speak for MAGA World, the media gets it wrong. No one speaks for MAGA except Trump, as he often points out.

The Washington Post, for example, highlighted criticisms from Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, who said of the recent strikes on Iran and taking out the Iranian leadership, “I’m just going to be brutally frank. That was not pitched in the 2024 campaign. It just wasn’t. We’re going to bleed support.”

MAGA support is solid for Trump

But the Post also included this: “Trump claimed that he alone spoke for MAGA after (he was asked) about the rebellion in the ranks of his supporters, according to a post … published late Monday. ‘MAGA wants to see our country thrive and be safe. And MAGA loves what I’m doing — every aspect of it,’ he said.”

The extent to which “MAGA loves what I’m doing” can be debated, but what’s beyond debate is that, while Trump’s relationship with his base might have some ebbs and flows, it will never dissolve entirely.

No matter how many followers, subscribers or views are attached to the online personalities said to represent MAGA World, their criticisms of Trump do not represent his grassroots followers. A new Fox News poll — which is traditionally one of the most accurate polls regardless of how you feel about Fox News — shows a 50-50 split among the general public in regard to the strikes on Iran. But among Republicans, “more than 8 in 10 approve of the current U.S. use of force.”

And polling favorability on military action always rises across the board after a mission is successful.

Some of the MAGA doves complain, as Bannon indicated, that Trump has always campaigned on not intervening in foreign affairs. To do so violates Trump’s “America First” doctrine, they claim.

That’s wrong. America First has never meant America Alone. As others have pointed out, we have essentially been in a 47-year war with Iran, ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the taking of American hostages that same year during the Carter administration (an event which helped elect Ronald Reagan president). A good timeline of Iranian terrorism against the U.S. ever since can be found here.

The Iranian leadership will not voluntarily stop its endless quest to develop nuclear weapons in its pursuit of destroying Israel and the U.S. It’s hard to think of anything more “America First” than finally ending this threat once and for all.

As Secretary of War (yes) Pete Hegseth said, “Turns out the regime who chanted ‘death to America’ and ‘death to Israel’ was gifted death from America and death from Israel. This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.”

For their part, most Democrats are once again making themselves smaller by trying to have it both ways. They agree that the regime in Iran was evil and needed to go. But they criticize Trump for making it happen. Good luck with that.

The exit strategy is to win

Critics ask what they always ask, strangely, about military interventions. What’s the plan? What’s the exit strategy? The answers to both should always be the same. The plan is to win. We will exit when we win.

Trump himself summed up his thinking on the subject just last year when he changed the Department of Defense to the Department of War.

“We won World War II. We won everything before, and as I said, we won everything in between,” Trump said. But since then, “…we were very strong, but we never fought to win. We just didn’t fight to win. … We could have won every war, but we really chose to be very politically correct, or wokey, and we just fight forever.”

The world can be assured that before Trump gave the go-ahead for the current action in Iran, his goal was not to fight forever. His goal is to win.

That might take a few weeks. And, as Trump said, it will result in some U.S. deaths. As of this writing, there have been six such casualties. If I’m the parent, spouse or other loved one of a member of the armed forces, I’m raising lots of prayers and having some sleepless nights.

But we have an all-volunteer military. No one serving today was drafted. Everyone knew the risks they were signing up for. God bless them for their willingness and courage to serve.

For perspective, there were more than 116,000 members of the U.S. armed forces killed in World War I. More than 400,000 in World War II. More than 36,000 in Korea. Over 58,000 in Vietnam. More than 2,000 in Afghanistan. More than 4,000 in Iraq. And many more in smaller conflicts.

Ridding the world of the Iranian threat will make every nation safer, as even countries who thought they were on friendly terms with Iran are currently discovering.

Trump is not always right. He often deserves the criticism that he brings on himself by his words and actions.

But thank goodness we have a president who is willing to adopt to changing circumstances. Thank goodness we have a president who recognizes a time of weakness in Iran that opened a window to take decisive action to end the regime of the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism around the globe.

Ending Iran’s reign of terror will make the world a much safer place. It’s past time for the U.S. and Israel to take the fight to Iran. And to win.

Gary Abernathy is an award-winning journalist and columnist with a long career in news media and politics, including as a contributing columnist for the Washington Post and a frequent analyst on PBS NewsHour. He is the author of “MAGA Republican Are Already Normal — And Other Shocking Notions.” Never miss an update from Abernathy Road, where Gary offers opinion and analysis about political and cultural developments.