Trump carried more states than any candidate in 20 years, a decisive win. And Happy Thanksgiving to all, politics aside.
By Gary Abernathy
Our United States awarded Trump a lopsided victory
I noted previously that although he was on track to win the national popular vote, President-elect Donald Trump was unlikely to hit the 50 percent mark when all the votes were finally counted. He would come close enough to legitimately round up to 50 percent, but for those looking for a chink in the armor, technically falling below the majority of all votes cast would be all they need.
Case in point is a recent analysis by New York Times editorial board member Jesse Wegman who, while lamenting the fact that federal charges against Trump were quickly biting the dust, noted the lack of a majority constituting Trump’s win:
It’s hard enough to accept a profound collapse of the rule of law and the work of multiple grand juries; it’s even harder to accept that this outcome was created by a plurality (but not a majority!) of American voters — more precisely, about 230,000 across three key swing states.
First, it’s only “hard enough” to accept the cases against Trump collapsing if you were cheering for the Biden Justice Department to carry out a politicized prosecution against Joe Biden’s (and later Kamala Harris’) opposition. But secondly, and most importantly, Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris was only short of a majority if the presidential election was a federal election determined by national popular vote. It is not.
It’s sometimes necessary to remind everyone that we are actually the United States of America. We are a republic comprised of 50 sovereign states (or technically in some cases, commonwealths), each going about their business under their own laws and cultural influences, with a few services jointly provided at the federal level more effectively than can be performed individually at the state level. The number of services actually needed federally is in fact much fewer than what has sadly come to pass over the years.
We do not have a national election for president. We have 50 separate state elections (plus the District of Columbia) that start at different dates (due to various early voting laws) but end on the same day (this year, Nov. 5.) Each state conducts its elections under its own guidelines.
It is through that frame of reference that we should interpret all presidential elections. When it comes to a presidential election, there are few things more irrelevant than the total of the popular votes from all the states when added together. When it comes to the popular vote, all that matters is who won the popular vote in each individual state, which determines who wins the electoral votes of each state (except Nebraska and Maine, which award two electoral votes based on winning the state and others (three and two respectively) based on winning congressional districts).
When we remind ourselves that we are a collection of sovereign states conducting simultaneous elections to determine a federal president, it helps us to dispense with mostly meaningless arguments about national popular vote margins, including whether the national popular vote was won or lost, or by how much either way.
When the presidential election is considered as it should be considered, it is entirely reasonable to call Trump’s victory quite decisive, and possibly even a landslide by modern standards. In the recent election, more states united to elect Trump than united to elect anyone of either party since George W. Bush 20 years ago.
Consider these facts:
In 2020, when Biden won the presidency, Biden won 25 states, Trump won 25 states—dead even. This year, Trump won 31 states, Harris won 19 states – very decisive.
Aside from the seven “swing states,” all won narrowly by Trump in 2024, most states won by Trump were by comfortable or even blowout margins.
In fact, Trump won more states this year — as well as in 2016 — than Barack Obama won in either of his elections. The last time anyone won more than 31 states was way back in 1992 — 32 years ago — when Bill Clinton won 32 states to just 18 for George H.W. Bush. Four years earlier, Bush had won 40 states on his way to a rout of Michael Dukakis. (The Democrat always wins the District of Columbia, which is not a state.)
Check out the number of states won by each candidate in the last 10 presidential elections:
2024: Donald Trump 31 states, Kamala Harris 19 states.
2020: Joe Biden 25 states, Donald Trump 25 states.
2016: Donald Trump 30 states, Hillary Clinton, 20 states.
2012: Barack Obama 26 states, Mitt Romney 24 states.
2008: Barack Obama 28 states, John McCain 22 states.
2004: George W. Bush 31 states, John Kerry 19 states.
2000: George W. Bush 30 states, Al Gore 20 states (yes, despite how close the electoral college and national popular vote were that year).
1996: Bill Clinton 31 states, Bob Dole 19 states.
1992: Bill Clinton 32 states, George H.W. Bush 18 states.
1988: George H.W. Bush 40 states, Michael Dukakis 10 states.
Of course, the real blowouts happened in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won 49 states, with Walter Mondale winning only his home state of Minnesota, and in 1972, when Richard Nixon swamped George McGovern, who only won Massachusetts.
This year, California is the only reason the national popular vote is considered close. If the votes (as of this writing) in California for both Harris (9,192,868) and Trump (6,000,377) were subtracted from the national total, Trump would add roughly 3 million votes to his lead and come in at over 50 percent of the total national vote.
Yes, that exercise could be applied to other states, but no other state comes close to tilting the scales as does California, which has about 5 million more registered voters than Texas, which has the second most voters. And yes, Californians are Americans, too, and their residents matter as much as people in Ohio, Florida, West Virginia or any Trump-leaning state. But California’s status in regard to sheer size and, more importantly, in far-left cultural matters throughout much of the state makes it a significant outlier compared to so much of the rest of the country.
That’s why the electoral college is a crucial device to counterbalance the undue influence of a state like California. Our electoral college system helps ensure that the right-leaning cultural considerations of West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and Mississippi, for example, and middle-to-right cultures of Ohio, Indiana, Florida, etc., are not completely overwhelmed by the left-leaning cultural considerations of a state thousands of miles removed geographically and a million miles removed in terms of values and traditions.
Along with the necessary electoral college victory, when the 2024 presidential election is considered as 50 separate state elections – with Trump winning 62 percent of the states (31 of 50) – it is right to declare Trump’s victory decisive, and possibly even a landslide by modern standards.
For Christmas, give ‘MAGA Republicans Are Already Normal’ — a perfect gift for Trump supporters and for friends and loved ones confused about the election
“MAGA Republicans Are Already Normal — And Other Shocking Notions” is the perfect Christmas gift for Trump supporters. But it might also help friends and loved ones make sense of the 2024 election results who just don’t get it. It’s available on Amazon. Buy it here.
The book (actually much thicker than the illustrations above indicate — the hardcover and paperback are each 453 pages) is a compilation of many of the columns I wrote for The Washington Post from 2017 to 2023, and covers a variety of topics, but it particularly focuses on Trump’s rise to political prominence and helps explain his appeal.
Here’s a link to a website dedicated to the book.
Happy Thanksgiving. Let’s count our blessings, not our political differences.
Happy Thanksgiving to the readers of Abernathy Road. Thank you for your readership and support. Let’s all count our blessings and appreciate friends and family during this special time of the year.
Our politics can be divisive. I personally have experienced relationships suffer because of political differences. That’s hard for me to understand. I consider so many things in life much more important than who we support politically. I love and respect friends and relatives who hold political opinions which are the opposite of mine. Sadly, a lot of people can’t seem to do that.
Here’s hoping everyone reading has a blessed holiday with friends and family.
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